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Bitcoin (BTC) wobbled amid a series of macro and geopolitical shocks in early 2026, but key market plumbing held up better than price action alone might suggest. A new analysis from Kaiko Research argues that while digital assets were swept into broader risk-off moves, improvements in 'liquidity' and derivatives positioning point to a market that absorbed stress without a lasting breakdown.

In a recent report covering performance from January through mid-April 2026, Kaiko Research analyst Thomas Probst evaluated cross-asset returns, correlations, realized volatility, spot-market depth, and trends in perpetual futures open interest. The central takeaway: expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve policy and escalating Middle East tensions were the primary forces shaping prices, often overpowering crypto-specific narratives.

Kaiko highlighted January 30 as a key inflection point, citing news that Kevin Warsh had been nominated as the next Federal Reserve chair. The development, coming as risk sentiment was already weakening, contributed to a sharper pullback across risk assets—crypto included—by intensifying uncertainty around the path of monetary policy.

Across markets, the divergence in outcomes underscored how macro shocks dominated early-2026 pricing. Bitcoin underperformed several major traditional assets over the period, while the S&P 500 index (SPX) broadly held near balanced levels. Gold stayed positive as investors leaned into defensive positioning. Oil, however, registered the most dramatic reaction: Kaiko estimates crude surged roughly 60% after the Middle East conflict worsened, reflecting supply disruption fears and renewed focus on the Strait of Hormuz.

The report also points to a notable shift in how Bitcoin traded relative to other asset classes. Since mid-March, the 30-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the SPX strengthened decisively in positive territory, suggesting BTC behaved less like an idiosyncratic alternative asset and more like a macro-sensitive risk instrument. Kaiko attributed the move to improving U.S. growth signals—such as PMI readings remaining in expansion—and a market that appeared to digest Iran-related headlines more quickly, allowing risk appetite to rebuild alongside Bitcoin’s rebound.

Bitcoin’s relationship with gold moved in the opposite direction for a time. Around mid-March, BTC’s correlation with gold slipped into negative territory as Bitcoin recovered while gold softened—evidence, Kaiko said, of capital rotating from defensive assets back toward cyclical exposure once the initial shock faded. In April, that gap narrowed as the correlation drifted back into positive territory, hinting at a more complex and fluid allocation regime rather than a clean risk-on/risk-off split.

Volatility metrics offered further signs of stabilization. Kaiko reported Bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility fell to about 39% by April from roughly 47%, indicating that—even amid drawdowns—price discovery became more orderly as the market adjusted. Oil volatility, by contrast, climbed from roughly 35% to above 100%, reflecting extreme uncertainty tied to Middle East supply risks.

The stress was not limited to Bitcoin. Ethereum (ETH), XRP (XRP), and Solana (SOL) also fell in tandem around late January and early February, even as the magnitude of declines varied by asset. Kaiko characterized the subsequent period from mid-February as a broad stabilization phase, emphasizing that the market shifted into 'consolidation' rather than cascading into a deeper disorderly unwind.

Spot-market conditions, often a weak point during fast selloffs, proved more resilient than some traders expected. Kaiko said 1% market depth—a measure of how much liquidity sits close to the mid-price—temporarily thinned across major assets between late January and early February, but did not signal structural depletion. Ethereum’s average 1% depth, for example, fell from about $3.16 million on January 1 to around $2.10 million by late January, then recovered to roughly $3.21 million by mid-April, suggesting order books replenished quickly after volatility spikes.

Derivatives data showed clearer evidence of a leverage reset. Open interest in BTC–Tether (USDT) and ETH–USDT perpetuals dropped sharply while trading volumes surged in early February—patterns consistent with significant liquidation flows. Yet while volumes normalized afterward, open interest gradually rebuilt, implying that speculative excess was flushed without permanently impairing participation. Kaiko estimated BTC–USDT perpetual open interest declined from about $5.05 billion on January 1 to roughly $3.27 billion at the trough, before climbing back to around $4.62 billion by mid-April.

For Kaiko, the combined picture is two-sided: crypto remains highly sensitive to macro and geopolitical forces, but the market’s internal mechanics appear more mature than in prior cycles. 'Market depth' recovering, realized volatility easing, and open interest rebuilding after a leverage purge are all consistent with what Probst described as early signs of a 'gradual recovery'—though he cautioned that the next few weeks would be critical to confirm whether the improvement is durable.

Ultimately, Kaiko’s assessment suggests the defining drivers of early 2026 were not crypto-native catalysts but shifting Fed expectations and geopolitical risk. Still, Bitcoin and major altcoins stabilized relatively quickly after the shock, while liquidity and positioning indicators improved—signs that the asset class may be adapting to a more institutionally influenced, macro-led trading environment.

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